Yesterday
the President of Kenya, H.E. Mwai Kibaki launched the construction of a 280MW
geothermal project at Olkaria, 100Kms from the capital Nairobi. The new plant will cost approx. USD 1Billion and
will be the largest geothermal power plant in Africa when completed in 2014. It
will cumulatively increase Kenya’s electricity capacity by 40% from the current 1500MW, considering other projects already under development.
This
is good for the country because its current shortfall at peak demand is
currently 200MW. Electricity supply is also known to be erratic and expensive
compared to other countries in the region.
The
project is funded by Kengen, Kenya’s
national power producer, The Government
of Kenya, the Japanese International
Cooperation Agency( JICA), The World
Bank, German Development Bank , (KFW),
The French Development bank( AFD),
and The European Investment bank.
The
project is being undertaken by a consortium made up of Japan’s Toyota Tsusho Corp and South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering & Construction
building the main power plant. Sinopec
of China is developing the steam field while construction of the substation and
transmission lines is being done by India’s KEC. We see a predominantly Asian team participating in this
project.
The
project is part of the government’s Vision
2030 plan to increase the country’s power production to 3,750MW by 2018 and
15,000MW by 2030.
In
the speeches yesterday most officials talked about cheaper renewable energy
through geothermal energy and this plant and others to follow going a long way
in creating a capacity reserve. A capacity reserve that will prevent blackouts
and power shedding during peak demand. Kenya currently has an estimated proven
reserve of 7,000MW of Geothermal Power.
From
my analysis I predict that when plant is complete it won’t have made a
difference to the reserve capacity as it would have only gone to quench the current
and growing power deficit. With the ongoing rapid rural electrification program,
growing population and expanding foreign investment in business, manufacturing and
commerce, the growth in demand should be about 10% per year. Even more I don’t believe
the power will be cheaper, immediately, as the loans taken from the
international lenders mentioned above have to be paid back with interest over
period of time. My prediction is that power from this plant will be cost
effective and cheaper after around 10
years.
Currently
only 15% of homes in Kenya have domestic power from the national grid, while
industries go without power for an average of 6 hours a week or more( According
to Ms Betty Maina, the Chairlady of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers). But
all in all congratulations to the Kenyan government for successfully pushing
through such a large and strategic project to increase provision of power that
many Kenyans have been yearning for and that will make Kenya’s electricity more
stable and cheaper in the long run.