Dear Readers
I usually do not post much on West Africa, as this blog is dedicated to Eastern Africa. However, i thought i should include this story. Because as i blog the following scenario is about to replicate itself in Eastern and other parts of Africa.
With the success of the Chinese on the continent, the Indians are also flexing their muscle, seeking deals and enhancing trade ties on a supposedly equal partnership with African countries. A lesson should be learned on how Indians do business from the story below, a little is borrowed from the Chinese, a bit from the West and some is inherently the Indian way.
ABUJA: India and Nigeria have signed an agreement to locate sites for solar power plants in Niger state, the first of a series of power plant deals which would provide additional energy for African country's national grid.
The agreement was signed between Nigeria's permanent secretary in the Ministry of Power - Godknows Igali and the secretary to the Government of India, Sutanu Behuria.
With this agreement, Bharat Heavy Electricals will begin preliminary studies ahead of siting independent solar-powered plants in selected locations in Niger, a Nigerian newspaper, Daily Trust reported.
"Nigeria's power sector will remain open to investment with the hope of unbundling the sector's potential," Igali said after the signing.
Behuria expressed India's interest in the provision of funds in various forms for the development of Nigeria's power sector..
African Energy & Extractive minerals related stories, issues, investment opportunities and analysis. Nominated for "Best New Blog in Kenya 2013" - BAKE Awards. To contact Blogger email eugene.obiero@gmail.com or Twitter @e_obiero
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Friday, 26 July 2013
West African banks to service East Africa oil finds
NAIROBI — West Africa’s insurance companies and commercial banks are setting up subsidiaries in East Africa to take advantage of the oil and gas financing skills gap following recent discoveries in the region.
Kenya and Uganda are estimated to have recoverable oil reserves of 2.5-billion barrels, but prospectors and geologists believe the amount will increase as the drilling activities continue, especially in the East Africa Rift Valley basin.
Tanzania has recoverable natural gas reserves of 33-trillion cubic feet, according to data released by its energy and minerals ministry.
East Africa’s insurance and banks have been caught unaware by recent discoveries and are struggling to cope financially, and lack skills to benefit from the sector.
The low capitalization of Kenya’s banks and insurance companies means they are not able to participate effectively in the capital-intensive oil and gas sectors.
Strategic partnerships with experienced West African banks and insurance companies are one of the many options the East Africans are pursuing as they also seek to import oil and gas financing skills.
In the past year, Ghana Re and Nigeria’s Continental Re have opened branches in Nairobi, with their major focus being the oil and gas sectors.
Last week, Nigeria’s GT Bank announced it was buying a 70% stake in Kenya’s Fina Bank, again with an eye on oil and gas. Ecobank Kenya also announced it would launch an investment bank in September to finance deals in these sectors.
Calisto Ogaye, the MD of Continental Reinsurance’s regional office in Nairobi, said the reinsurer was partnering with regional insurers to develop products, such as underwriting pools where regional reinsurers could underwrite small proportions of the risks.
"Gradually they will develop the necessary financial and technical expertise to reduce the amount of premiums that are ceded to foreign reinsurers," said Mr Ogaye.
Only on Monday, Ecobank Transnational said it had started operations in South Sudan, its 34th country on the continent.
"Our presence in four of its six bordering countries, namely Kenya, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic, is a unique advantage to contribute to the development and integration of South Sudan’s young republic." Ecobank CEO Thierry Tanoh said.
East Africa Community governments were working on a policy that would require the oil and gas insurance business to pass through local insurance companies, said Israel Kamuzora, the head of Tanzania’s insurance regulatory authority.
"This is intended to prevent the business from eluding the local companies. The option insurers are pursuing is to form an oil and gas insurance pool, and employ people with specialised oil and gas insurance skills. The pool will not retain risks, though, but act as an agency," said Mr Kamuzora
Last week, one of Nigeria’s biggest banks, London-listed Guaranty Trust Bank, announced the acquisition of 70% of Kenya’s medium-sized Fina Bank in a deal yet to get final approval from the regulators in Kenya. Guaranty is a strong player in Nigeria’s oil and gas sectors.
Ecobank Kenya is in the process of getting the final licences to start an investment bank, CEO Ehoumann Kassi said. Earlier this year, the bank bought the local subsidiary of the London-based African-focused fixed-income securities firm Iroko Securities Limited.
Another West Africa-based financial institution, Bank of Africa — Kenya, is also focused on the oil and gas sectors, although not directly but by financing small and medium-size enterprises benefiting from investment optimism created by oil and gas discoveries.
The bank last year decided to retain the 15.5% stake after the exit of private equity firm Aureos East Africa Fund, leaving Netherlands Development Finance Company, with a 20% stake, as its only other shareholder that is not related to the parent group.
By Steve Mbogo
Kenya and Uganda are estimated to have recoverable oil reserves of 2.5-billion barrels, but prospectors and geologists believe the amount will increase as the drilling activities continue, especially in the East Africa Rift Valley basin.
Tanzania has recoverable natural gas reserves of 33-trillion cubic feet, according to data released by its energy and minerals ministry.
East Africa’s insurance and banks have been caught unaware by recent discoveries and are struggling to cope financially, and lack skills to benefit from the sector.
The low capitalization of Kenya’s banks and insurance companies means they are not able to participate effectively in the capital-intensive oil and gas sectors.
Strategic partnerships with experienced West African banks and insurance companies are one of the many options the East Africans are pursuing as they also seek to import oil and gas financing skills.
In the past year, Ghana Re and Nigeria’s Continental Re have opened branches in Nairobi, with their major focus being the oil and gas sectors.
Last week, Nigeria’s GT Bank announced it was buying a 70% stake in Kenya’s Fina Bank, again with an eye on oil and gas. Ecobank Kenya also announced it would launch an investment bank in September to finance deals in these sectors.
Calisto Ogaye, the MD of Continental Reinsurance’s regional office in Nairobi, said the reinsurer was partnering with regional insurers to develop products, such as underwriting pools where regional reinsurers could underwrite small proportions of the risks.
"Gradually they will develop the necessary financial and technical expertise to reduce the amount of premiums that are ceded to foreign reinsurers," said Mr Ogaye.
Only on Monday, Ecobank Transnational said it had started operations in South Sudan, its 34th country on the continent.
"Our presence in four of its six bordering countries, namely Kenya, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic, is a unique advantage to contribute to the development and integration of South Sudan’s young republic." Ecobank CEO Thierry Tanoh said.
East Africa Community governments were working on a policy that would require the oil and gas insurance business to pass through local insurance companies, said Israel Kamuzora, the head of Tanzania’s insurance regulatory authority.
"This is intended to prevent the business from eluding the local companies. The option insurers are pursuing is to form an oil and gas insurance pool, and employ people with specialised oil and gas insurance skills. The pool will not retain risks, though, but act as an agency," said Mr Kamuzora
Last week, one of Nigeria’s biggest banks, London-listed Guaranty Trust Bank, announced the acquisition of 70% of Kenya’s medium-sized Fina Bank in a deal yet to get final approval from the regulators in Kenya. Guaranty is a strong player in Nigeria’s oil and gas sectors.
Ecobank Kenya is in the process of getting the final licences to start an investment bank, CEO Ehoumann Kassi said. Earlier this year, the bank bought the local subsidiary of the London-based African-focused fixed-income securities firm Iroko Securities Limited.
Another West Africa-based financial institution, Bank of Africa — Kenya, is also focused on the oil and gas sectors, although not directly but by financing small and medium-size enterprises benefiting from investment optimism created by oil and gas discoveries.
The bank last year decided to retain the 15.5% stake after the exit of private equity firm Aureos East Africa Fund, leaving Netherlands Development Finance Company, with a 20% stake, as its only other shareholder that is not related to the parent group.
By Steve Mbogo
Thursday, 25 July 2013
Africa Oil Spuds Ekales-1 Well in Kenya
Africa Oil Corp has announce the
commencement of drilling operations on its Ekales prospect located in Block 13T
in the Lokichar Basin in Kenya. The well was spud on July 22, 2013 and has a
planned total depth of 2500 metres and is expected to approximately 2 months to
drill and evaluate. The primary objectives are the Auwerwer and Lower Lokhone
sandstones already established to be highly productive reservoirs at the nearby
Ngamia and Twiga discoveries. The prospect is a three way fault closure against
the main basin bounding fault and is located directly between, and
approximately 15 km northwest of the Ngamia discovery and 7 km south of the
Twiga discovery along the "string of pearls" trend. The well is being
drilled by the Weatherford #804 rig. The Company holds a 50% working interest
in this prospect along with operator Tullow Oil Plc.
Africa Oil CEO Keith Hill commented,
"The Ekales prospect is probably one of the lowest risk prospects in our
inventory. The proximity and similarity to the existing Ngamia and Twiga
discoveries give us a high degree of confidence that we will find oil and
continue to build the discovered resources necessary for commercial volume
threshold. Our pace of exploration and appraisal continues to accelerate with
the anticipated arrival of three additional rigs in Kenya and Ethiopia in the
next 60 days for a total of six rigs, four of which will be operated by Tullow
Oil." The recently announced Etuko discovery, on the flank of the Lokichar
basis has opened a new play fairway and provided further confirmation of the
world class potential of the Lokichar Basin."
In the South Omo block in Ethiopia,
mobilization of the OGEC 75 rig to the Tultule location is underway. This
prospect is located 4 kilometres from the Sabisa-1 well which was recently
abandoned after proving the existence of the essential hydrocarbon elements of
source, seal and reservoir in this frontier basin. It is being drilled on a
well-defined horst block feature which should provide good trapping
characteristics. The Company holds a 30% working interest in this prospect
along with operator Tullow Oil Plc (50%) and Marathon Oil (20%).
The Etuko well in Block 10BB, where an oil
discovery was recently announced in shallower reservoirs, has now reached a
total depth 3100 metres and log and MDT evaluation have commenced. The rigs for
the Ogaden Basin (Block 7&8) El Kuran-3 prospect in Ethiopia (africa oil
non-operated working interest:30%) and the Block 9 Bahasi prospect in Kenya
(africa oil operated working interest:50%) are in country and spud of El
Kuran-3 is expected in August and Bahasi-1 in September. One additional
lightweight rig has been contracted for testing and drilling operations in the
Lokichar Basin and should also be operational in September.
Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas
company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through
its 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. Africa Oil's East
African holdings are in within a world-class exploration play fairway with a
total gross land package in this prolific region in excess of 250,000 square
kilometers.
Wednesday, 10 July 2013
Renewable Energy in Kenya- new portal
The Energy Regulatory Commission of Kenya (ERC) has launched a new portal (www.renewableenergy.go.ke)., whose sole purpose is to provide investment level information and data to potential private investors in Kenya's renewable energy sector.
The lack of access to comprehensive, accurate and reliable information on the renewable energy regulatory landscape in Kenya has been a significant barrier to private sector participation. Types and number of licenses/clearances, application procedures, associated costs, contacts of related government agencies, expected turn-around time and the sequence of application process remains a mystery to many local and international investors interested in the renewable energy subsector in Kenya.
The Energy Regulatory Commission of Kenya (ERC) is constantly working towards improving knowledge and awareness on the existing regulations and institutions governing the energy sector. ERC is a single sector regulatory agency established under section 4(1) of the Energy Act, 2006 and has the mandate to collect and disseminate energy sector related information to the public, investors and the Government Institutions. Towards this end, and in close collaboration with related government agencies and development partners, ERC has now developed the Kenya Renewable Energy Portal (www.renewableenergy.go.ke).
The web-based Portal is a one-stop window providing information on the licensing and regulatory requirements for renewable energy projects development in Kenya. Development of the portal has been a participatory process cognizant of the existing information outlets managed by other government agencies. It is envisioned that the consolidation of these pieces of information will ease the burden of project preparation and reduce transaction costs on the part of Renewable Energy developers.
The Portal contains information on all the licensing requirements from the different issuing agencies as well as agencies that provide associated information on renewable energy projects and includes prerequisites for application, fees and charges, expected processing time, contact persons and office location, renewable energy electricity tariff structures, status of the renewable energy sector, overview of renewable energy resources, among others.
ERC will work closely with key government agencies involved in the provision of licenses/permits/clearances for renewable energy in Kenya to ensure the Portal has current and accurate information at all times.
Tuesday, 9 July 2013
AfriCOG- Call For Proposals for Consultancy
Consultancy to develop a brief on entrenching good governance (transparency and accountability) in Kenya’s oil extractive industry
Date issued: 9th July 2013
Submission deadline: 18th July 2013
About AfriCOG: AfriCOG is an independent, non-profit organisation that provides cutting edge research and monitoring on governance and public ethics issues in both public and private sectors so as to address the structural causes of the crisis of governance in the country. The overall objectives of our programme activities are: to strengthen anti-corruption and good governance in Kenya with objective, high-quality research and advocacy; and to build Kenya’s capacity to be permanently vigilant and monitor progress on governance issues in the public and private sectors.
Background: Kenya recently discovered large oil, gas, and coal deposits and is now set to start mass extraction of the same. International experience in similar situations reveals economic, social and political challenges faced by resource-rich developing countries in translating the potential benefits from such discovery into something that the citizens of the country can benefit from while maintaining peace.
The absence of strong mechanisms for accountability and oversight in the extractive industries of these countries, have allowed for small groups of persons to entrench themselves in the system and benefit entirely, while allowing corruption to take root, to the detriment of the communities in oil rich areas and the countries as a whole. This has also led to conflicts in these oil rich areas. To avoid going down the same path, Kenya will have to prepare and put up strong safeguards in its oil extractive sector at an early stage.
Description of Task and Timelines:
The consultant will develop a brief on Kenya’s oil extractive industry. The brief will address and focus on how transparency, accountability and public participation (good governance in general) can be entrenched in the way the sector operates. The brief developed by the consultant should be simple to understand as in addition to being used by larger civil society partners and policy makers, it is intended for use by citizens in the grassroots and community based organizations in their own advocacy and civic vigilance efforts.
The 20 page+/- brief will encompass the below:
1. Kenya’s (Ministry of Energy) actions so far in preparing for the extraction of oil, since discovery, including awarding of tenders, efforts to learn from other countries which have active oil extractive sectors etc.
2. The effect, so far, of the discovery of oil deposits on the communities found in the areas in which the oil has been discovered
3. Best practice in terms of dealing with corruption and entrenching transparency, accountability and public participation in the industry, including reporting on revenues and dealing with non compliance with laws/regulations, oversight mechanisms, open contracting etc.
4. Aspects of sustainable development that the government has to pay attention to while exploring the oil in order to ensure that in the years to come (after exploration stops) the persons in the areas where the oil is explored are able continue to have proper lives/can sustain themselves beyond the exploration
5. Any remedial action that should be taken up now and recommendations going forward based on the best practice discussed, including how to ensure that the local communities are protected and that they benefit appropriately (focusing on necessary legal and institutional mechanisms and the relationships between the two)
The assignment will be undertaken over a 1 ½ -2 week period.
Profile and experience:
The consultant should have substantial experience in the following areas of expertise:
- Constitutional law, devolution, open government, open contracting, public administration, governance and anti-corruption
- Drafting and review of legislation
- Policy research and implementation
- Research management
- Have demonstrable experience, preferably over 5 years in the technical area ie extractive industry
- Have an advanced university degree or relevant professional experience
- Have the ability to develop relevant, user-friendly material e.g briefs and reports
- Have exceptional report writing skills, and ability to address technical matters in accessible language.
- Have exceptional analytical skills
- Have proven ability to work reliably to tight deadlines
- Curriculum Vitae
- A brief summary proposal on how the applicant(s) intend(s) to take on the assignment, including proposed work plan/ time schedule, deliverables, and key aspects of methodological approach envisaged
- A writing sample (unedited) on a relevant topic, ideally on an issue related to Kenya’s or other extractive industry
- Contact details for at least two independent referees with in-depth knowledge of the applicant’s expertise and relevant work experience.
- A duly filled out AfriCOG consultant profile (herewith attached) https://www.dropbox.com/s/0rgoizudyr8te1i/AfriCOG%20Consultants%20Template.doc
The consultants must:
Application procedure
The applications must be sent to admin@africog.org by 18th July 2013, with the following attached:
Please indicate: “Call for proposals-Consultancy to develop a brief on entrenching good governance (transparency and accountability) in Kenya’s oil extractive industry”, in the subject line of your email.
Regards
Wednesday, 3 July 2013
Tullow Oil reports Kenya exploration success
Africa-focused Tullow Oil Plc hailed a "very successful" exploration programme in frontier oil country Kenya on Wednesday, reporting a strong well test flow rate and doubling its estimates of the depth of the oil resource in the basin.
In the first half 2013 trading statement it also announced confirmation of a new oil discovery at its Etuko prospect in the southern part of the Lokichar basin, and said its Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia had established that the hydrocarbon system there was oil prone.
The report for Tullow's Ngamia-1 well said tests had found a constrained flow rate of 3,200 barrels a day, more than the minimum analysts had been hoping for, and doubled its estimate of net oil pay depth to 200 metres for Ngamia-1 and 75 metres for another Lokichar well, Twiga-South-1.
"The Kenya upgrades... will drive the stock higher today," said analyst Mark Wilson at Macquarie.
"Overall Kenya is getting the company back on track to following up basin opening success with basin commercialising success."
Tullow sees a flow rate potential of 5,000 barrels a day based on Ngamia-1 and Twiga-South-1, and estimates there are 250 million barrels of oil in place - a forecast it said could increase further after appraisal.
Tullow is focused on exploration but is producing oil in Ghana. It said government talks about developing resources it discovered in Uganda, another frontier oil country, were "ongoing".
By Andrew Callus (Reuters)
Positive outlook for Africa's oil and gas sectors
By Rolake Akinkugbe, head of energy research at Ecobank Group.
The continent needs to develop the much-needed infrastructure in order to reap full benefits from its energy resources.
Africa’ share of global oil and gas production has stood at 10% and 6% respectively over the past 24 months. The total production of crude oil in Africa in 2013 is likely to be around 8.9 million barrels per day. Of that amount, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will produce around 5.9 million bpd – compared to estimates of 5.5 million bpd in 2012 – and assuming that at least 150,000 bpd of South Sudan’s 350,000 bpd production returns permanently to market. Africa also produced an estimated 230 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2012, and this is likely to increase to around 250 bcm in 2013, with new supplies from Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania.
The continent needs to develop the much-needed infrastructure in order to reap full benefits from its energy resources.
Africa’ share of global oil and gas production has stood at 10% and 6% respectively over the past 24 months. The total production of crude oil in Africa in 2013 is likely to be around 8.9 million barrels per day. Of that amount, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will produce around 5.9 million bpd – compared to estimates of 5.5 million bpd in 2012 – and assuming that at least 150,000 bpd of South Sudan’s 350,000 bpd production returns permanently to market. Africa also produced an estimated 230 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2012, and this is likely to increase to around 250 bcm in 2013, with new supplies from Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania.
Up to 70 oil and gas discoveries have been made in sub-Saharan over the past 5 years, with Uganda, Mozambique and Tanzania, the greatest beneficiaries of these. Despite the new focus on the East Africa region, around 90% of SSA’s crude oil and gas exports will still originate from West Africa and Gulf of Guinea Region in the next decade. However, there will be see a gradual decline in demand from the US for SSA’s crude oil, as growing domestic oil and shale gas production in the US and North America, add to the global supply pool, and decrease energy import levels in North America. In this piece, Ecobank Research takes a broad look at the fundamentals of production, supply and demand in Middle Africa’s oil and gas sector.
China has rapidly emerged as the largest single buyer of the region’s crude, accounting for close to 60% of all Asian imports of crude oil from SSA. While Asia as a whole still lags behind Europe as the largest importer of SSA’s crude, it has been a larger importer than North America for the past 12 months. China’s thirst for SSA’s commodities has seen state backed companies such as the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) acquire assets for the first time in frontier plays such as Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma gas basin. While Asian buyers will probably reduce their oil imports due to slower than expected growth in 2013, this unlikely to be significant enough to trigger a large decline in imports of SSA’s crude to the East. Despite slow economic recovery globally, key emerging market economies, such as India and China are likely to remain firm trading partners for SSA for decades to come.
Oil prices ended 2012 with an average of US$111 per barrel (bbl). Prices in 2013 will continued to be influenced by supply and demand dynamics. With global oil demand likely to remain slow in 2013, oil prices in particular are likely to remain around US$100/bbl over the next 12-24 months. Output increases from non-OPEC countries are likely to continue into 2013, with increasing North American unconventional supplies constituting a further downward pull factor on oil prices. This is also likely to have a moderating impact on the prices of key SSA crude oil grades such as Nigeria’s Bonny light and, which have historically traded at a premium of around $3 to Brent crude.
China, the US and Europe will account for around 46% of global oil demand in 2013, though oil demand in the US and Europe has been steadily decline in recent years. Demographic changes, slow economic recovery, and continued high unemployment will continue to constitute a damper on global oil demand in the years ahead. Oil supply growth is still only about 50% of what it used to be in 2010, and much of the supply growth the years ahead likely to come from unconventional sources.
Natural Gas
Gas production in Middle Africa in 2013 will stand at nearly 2.4 trillion cubic feet a day. Nigeria’s gas production accounts for 64% of the region’s 6.6 billion cubic feet per day. Overall, gas production from the West Africa and Gulf of Guinea region will continue to dominate gas production in Middle Africa, possibly accounting for 79% of production in 2013.
New production from Nigeria, Angola and Ghana are also expected to boost the region’s gas output. Middle Africa’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports (currently only from Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea) currently lie in the region of 60 million metric tonnes a year, though that figure is expected to rise by at least 20% with the expected coming on-stream of LNG exports from Angola by the end of 2013; the commencement of gas production for LNG in Angola to result in the addition of almost 600 mmscf/d in 2013.
Gas exploration intensified along the West African coast in 2012 with major discoveries reported in Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Equatorial Guinea. These discoveries are expected to spur major gas developments in these countries and even Nigeria (where exploration efforts have reduced over regulatory uncertainty) in 2013. The region’s demand for power has risen considerably over the last few years and will drive gas demand in 2013 significantly. New gas plants planned under the Nigeria Independent Power Projects (NIPP) scheme have been under-utilized primarily due to lack of adequate gas supply.
In Ghana, efforts to increase power supply have suffered the most from a decline in supply from the West Africa Gas Pipeline (WAGP). The WAGP has failed to deliver the level of gas agreed by its partners – 120 mmscfd – due to various issues including high moisture, low pressure, pipeline attacks etc. The success of the project in 2013 is likely to hinge on the direction of gas policy in Middle Africa’s largest gas producer, Nigeria.
Gas production grew by 31% in Central Africa in 2012 to 174 mmscfd. The growth in production was largely attributable to new production in Cameroon. Central Africa’s gas is predominantly for power generation. However, this could change as urea fertilizer production is set to join the mix in 2013. In Gabon, a new fertilizer plant off the country’s coast will produce an estimated 2200 tons of ammonia and 3850 tons of urea per day. In Central Africa as a whole gas volumes are likely to to 225 mmscf/d, underpinned by new production in Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.
Estimates of possible gas reserves off the coast of East and south-eastern Africa are in the region of 441 trillion cubic feet according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). East Africa’s main gas market is Tanzania, the only gas producing country in the region. The country became the toast of explorers in 2012 following gas discoveries in the Rovuma basin, which have tripled its gas reserves to 28.7 trillion cubic feet (tcf). Up until 2012, Tanzania’s 200 mmscfd was produced purely for power generation. However, with its new-found gas reserves, there is talk of 1 or 2 LNG trains by the US IOC, ExxonMobil, UK BG Group and Norwegian National Oil Company (NOC), Statoil. Tanzania in the meantime hopes to step up gas production to 400 mmscfd by Q4 2013 to boost power generation.
Prior to 2012, Mozambique gas reserves were estimated at about 5.5 tcf. Gas production of about 345 mmscfd was largely geared towards the fulfilment of the country’s bilateral arrangement with South Africa to boost power generation in South Africa. Gas production in the region is forecast to grow steadily over the next few years, predicated on rising demand for power. A substantial production increase is expected from 2017/2018 when LNG plants are expected to come on-stream. Explorers believe the Mozambique’s gas reserves can support up to 6 LNG trains and are set to stake as much as $5 to $8 billion over the next five years in projects.
Refined products
Demand for refined products across the entire Africa continent is likely to rise by up to 40% to 4.3million barrels in 2020, from just 3 million barrels in 5 years ago. This equates to roughly an annual growth rate of between 3-4%, or indeed up to thrice the global demand increase forecast by the IEA. Middle Africa’s total installed refinery capacity stands at 860,000 bpd. However, we estimate that the region is likely to face a product supply gap of 485,000 bpd in 2013, underpinning continuing dependence on imports.
Across Middle Africa, gasoline and diesel will be primary fuels used in road transport, with gasoil and diesel constituting the most consumed product across all key sectors in 2012. Cote d’Ivoire is the largest exporter of refined petroleum products among Middle Africa’s refining countries. West, East and Southern Africa import more refined products than they export, despite West Africa’s significant exports of crude oil.
West Africa’s petroleum products market is still one of the key markets in Middle Africa. Oil consumption in West Africa is projected to rise to 665,000 bpd in 2013, driven by a considerable growth in demand for diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and gasoline. It plays host to the largest importer of petroleum products in Middle Africa, Nigeria, which imports nearly $7 billion worth of refined products annually, due to low capacity utilization of its refineries – less than 30% in 2012.
West Africa is also host to Cote d’Ivoire, which could still hold the key to improved refined products supply in the region. The country’s 70,000 bpd Société Ivorienne de Rafinnage (SIR) is a key supplier to the region, as oil consumption in Cote d’Ivoire is only 27,000 bpd. However, the region’s fuel demands are set to rise even faster, fuelled by faster urbanization of its major cities, rapid economic growth and regional integration of businesses. Active refining capacity in the region is currently around 38% of the 620,000 installed refining capacity.
Central Africa’s oil consumption is projected to rise 5% to 74,800 bpd in 2013. Unlike in West Africa where active refinery capacity is less than the region’s consumption, Central Africa’s four refineries in Cameroon, Chad, Gabon and Congo Brazzaville have a combined active capacity of 106,000 bpd. Among these, Cameroon’s SONARA is the key refinery in the Central Africa region. Cameroon’s estimated consumption of only 27,000 bpd is significantly lower than the refinery’s 45,000 bpd output; the balance is exported to the region. However, keeping fuel prices low remains a challenge for the region, consequently fuel subsidies are in use.
Cameroon’s fuel subsidy bill has been rising alongside gasoline consumption, reaching $600 million in 2012. East Africa’s downstream market consumes about 328,000 bpd of petroleum products and will see 4.5% increase to 342,000 bpd in 2013. There is however only one refinery in the region, the Kenya Pipeline and Refinery Ltd (KPRL), which functioned below 50% of its installed capacity throughout 2012, fuelling high levels of fuel imports in 2012. Further increases in imports are likely to create additional logistics problems for the region, which has struggled to cope with the demands of importing its fuel needs.
Diesel represents almost 50% of the 156,000 bpd of refined products consumed in Southern Africa (excluding South Africa). However, the bulk of the diesel is imported from neighbouring South Africa, Asia and Europe. The only refinery in the region is Zambia’s 24,000 bpd Indeni Refinery, which is only sufficient for Zambia’s own demand of approximately 20,000bpd and not the region’s need of more than 110,000bpd. Mozambique’s 350,000 bpd refinery, which is expected to commence construction in 2013 is a welcome development and is likely to find ready markets across the region. However, the refinery is not due for completion until 2014 or 2015.
Monday, 1 July 2013
Uganda's Karuma Dam finally to be Built
Within two weeks, work at Uganda’s Karuma power plant is expected to start after government awarded Chinese firm Sinohydro the tender to build the 600 megawatt (MW) dam.
Energy Minister Irene Muloni signed the contract on behalf of the government, while Zhanga Yunli, chairman of Sinohydro Corporation, signed for the Chinese. "The government of the Republic of Uganda has decided to award the EPC contract for constructing the 600 MW Karuma hydro power plant (HPP) and the associated transmission line (Karuma interconnection project) to Sinohydro Corporation," a government statement said.
"Sinohydro has promised to commence works at Karuma within two weeks, thereby ensuring that the delivery of power consequently commences at the earliest possible date and without any further delays," the statement says.
The deal comes after President Museveni held talks with China's President Xi Jinping, in Durban, South Africa, during the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit early this year.
The two agreed to quickly come up with a solution for Karuma dam’s construction, after the procurement process for a contractor had been mired in endless controversy.
Australian plans for clean energy in Africa
Wasabi Energy, a developer of clean-power technology, plans to sell shares in a new unit in Africa as rising demand across the continent lures finance from Asia.
“There seems to be a lot of funding that is wanting to go towards Africa,” Diane Bettess, chief operating officer of the Melbourne-based company, told Bloomberg. “Chinese companies have built themselves up and got massive penetration in China and now they’re looking for growth so they’re looking outside.”
Wasabi, whose technology captures waste heat to produce electricity, has already proposed to fund its Asian division in a similar way – planning an initial public offering for the unit later this year. Now it’s turning to Africa as nations struggle to meet power demand amid burgeoning population growth.
The company expects to establish the new unit and start the fundraising once it has projects in Africa to serve as a “spring board,” Bettess said. The process will be under way within the next year, without providing details of how much it intends to raise.
Wasabi’s Kalina Cycle technology generates electricity from low-heat sources and can be used in geothermal plants, metalworks and oil refineries. In Africa, Kenya already has a geothermal industry, while the South African market is “very strong,” Bettess said
“There seems to be a lot of funding that is wanting to go towards Africa,” Diane Bettess, chief operating officer of the Melbourne-based company, told Bloomberg. “Chinese companies have built themselves up and got massive penetration in China and now they’re looking for growth so they’re looking outside.”
Wasabi, whose technology captures waste heat to produce electricity, has already proposed to fund its Asian division in a similar way – planning an initial public offering for the unit later this year. Now it’s turning to Africa as nations struggle to meet power demand amid burgeoning population growth.
The company expects to establish the new unit and start the fundraising once it has projects in Africa to serve as a “spring board,” Bettess said. The process will be under way within the next year, without providing details of how much it intends to raise.
Wasabi’s Kalina Cycle technology generates electricity from low-heat sources and can be used in geothermal plants, metalworks and oil refineries. In Africa, Kenya already has a geothermal industry, while the South African market is “very strong,” Bettess said
Tanzania to add gas plant to grid
General Electric (GE) and Symbion Power Tanzania have signed a cooperation agreement to develop a 400 MW gas-fired power plant in the Mtwara region of south western Tanzania to boost electricity generation in the country. The project is expected to commence early next year.
The signing ceremony was held in Dar es Salaam between GE's vice-chairman John Rice and Symbion Power Tanzania's general manager Don Brindle, and witnessed by Energy and Minerals Minister Prof Sospeter Muhongo.
The project will be sited in the gas-rich region near Mtwara, the region’s capital city. It will also include a transmission line from Mtwara to Songea where it will be connected to the national grid.
The signing ceremony was held in Dar es Salaam between GE's vice-chairman John Rice and Symbion Power Tanzania's general manager Don Brindle, and witnessed by Energy and Minerals Minister Prof Sospeter Muhongo.
The project will be sited in the gas-rich region near Mtwara, the region’s capital city. It will also include a transmission line from Mtwara to Songea where it will be connected to the national grid.
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